The Davis Downside Dossier

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“...there will be no downside to Brexit at all, and considerable upsides”
David Davis

In October 2016, David Davis, the then Brexit secretary, told the House of Commons that “there will be no downside to Brexit at all, and considerable upsides”.

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The downsides

July 2024Bootstrap
1905.
Borders
Musicians

Singer Kim Wilde has been forced to find “ways around” the Brexit restrictions on musicians travelling around the EU. She told BANG Showbiz when asked if she and her backing group had been hit by the fallout from the 2020 referendum vote to quit the bloc: “We have found ways around it. There have been some issues that needed sorting out, some complications from time to time. But, luckily, nothing we haven’t been able to overcome.” Miss Wilde's remarks come after a survey found almost half of UK musicians and workers in the music industry have had less work in the EU since Brexit than before it.

1904.
Borders
Gibraltar

According to The Daily Telegraph, Spain is about to impose a hard border on Gibraltar in the absence of a Brexit deal for the Rock, authorities in Gibraltar have warned. The government of the overseas territory told residents they will face full Brexit border controls for the first time once new EU border systems are in place in November, after talks aimed at finding an agreement reached deadlock. Gibraltarians face tighter controls, including a 90-day limit on visa-free travel to the EU every 180 days, and a requirement to submit their fingerprints and facial photos in automated border booths before entering Spain.

1903.
Transport
Aviation

One Air, the UK's sole operator of B747 freighters, is lobbying the government to establish a bilateral agreement with the EU to ease post-Brexit bottlenecks. These include difficulties in hiring pilots and engineers and accessing maintenance facilities due to the UK's exit from the EU Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). NED Paul Simmons revealed the lack of reciprocity in professional qualifications between the UK and EU following Brexit has led to increased costs and operational inefficiencies for One Air, impacting its growth. Simmons believes the lack of mutual recognition is a bureaucratic oversight and has urged swift policy changes.

1902.
Citizens
Trade

The Daily Telegraph carries a story of a Cotswold couple who moved to France to afford their own home without being saddled with a huge mortgage. The piece is sub-titled: Britons ditch the land of red tape to pursue dream of home ownership on the Continent. Phil and Kirsti Coley say the move also created business opportunities unaffordable back home. Mr Coley claimed: “The barriers to starting your own retail business with high street frontage in France compared to the UK are hugely different. In the UK I could expect to pay between £15,000 to £20,000 in rates a year for this type of premises which we’ve turned into office and workshop space with a coffee shop. Here, it’s just £1,000 a year.”

1901.
Government
EU Relations

A research briefing for the House of Commons Library puts the Treasury's latest estimate of the UK's divorce bill agreed as part of the 2019 Withdrawal Agreement at £30.2 bn with £23.8 billion of that having been paid as of December 2023. This excludes £2.9 bn of contributions still owing to the European Development Fund (EDF) until the current programme ends in 2026. The Gross figure was £48.6 bn less £18.4 bn of receipts.

1900.
Food
Fruit

Liz Webster, the founder of Save British Farming, a lobby group campaigning to rejoin the Single Market, has blamed Brexit for a crisis in Britain's berry-growing sector. British Berry Growers (BBG), representing more than 95% of locally-grown berries sold in the UK, found almost half of growers (47%) reported not making a profit, suggesting that 40% could go out of business by the end of 2026. Ms Webster says “Brexit removed food subsidies and labour supply, pushing inflation further. Brexit also added trade barriers for exports reducing the market for sales.”

1899.
Government
EU

Sir Alex Younger a former MI6 chief, has told ITV that Britain has been “marginalised” by Brexit. He said: “Putin would’ve been absolutely delighted by our decision (to leave the EU) and so would Xi.” Sir Alex added that when he travels around Europe, he is profoundly depressed. “Just nobody mentions the UK. We've made ourselves irrelevant. And this is extraordinary. The beginning part of this century, we were the dominant force. France has effectively eclipsed us and you just don't hear a discussion of us.”

1898.
Immigration
Crime

An Italian-born police officer working in Manchester has been forced to quit his job after the salary threshold to sponsor his Italian wife to live in post-Brexit UK was raised to £29,000. Dani, has been in the UK since 2017 and has full settled status under the post-Brexit residency scheme for EU citizens but, with one year into a two-year probation period training to be a detective, earns only £26,000, £3,000 short of the sum needed to act as sponsor to bring a foreign family member into the country.

1897.
Borders
Travel

Amid warnings of long delays at entry points into Britain, the EU has announced a delay in the implementation date of the European Entry/Exit system (EES) from 6 October to 10 November. Getlink, the operator of Le Shuttle, which takes vehicles through the Channel tunnel, has spent €78m (£66m) providing new facilities to ensure a smooth introduction. It expects EES will mean an additional six to seven minutes to process a carful of passengers, reports The Guardian.

1896.
Construction
Shortages

Labour's pledge to build 1.5mn homes in England over the next 5 years is at risk due to a shortfall of more than 150,000 skilled construction workers, according to Tim Balcon, CEO of the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB). Among the factors driving the net loss are an ageing workforce and changes to UK immigration rules as a result of Brexit, which led to a steady decline in the numbers of immigrant construction workers.

1895.
Economy
Trade

Nick Thomas-Symonds, the UK's ministerial envoy to the EU, has told the FT, “What business wants is fewer barriers to trade [with the EU].”  Mr Thomas-Symonds said Britain wanted “structured dialogue to happen as soon as possible” to build closer ties on a wide range of issues including security, dismantling trade barriers and migration. He confirmed that Britain was also seeking an UK-EU leaders’ summit to help seal the new partnership, saying both sides would be “laying some groundwork for this in the autumn”.

1894.
Health
Covid

The Covid-19 inquiry led by Baroness Hallet has officially found that senior health officials were diverted to plan for a “no deal Brexit” – ultimately killing more people when Covid struck in 2020, reports The iNews. In the same month that the UK’s first two Covid cases were discovered, a cabinet-level body that had created the pandemic flu readiness board was effectively abolished before its work was completed, leaving a “significant amount” unfinished, and in particular any surge planning for the health and social care sectors.

1893.
Economy
Regulation

The King's speech this week contained proposals for new legislation to make it easier for the UK to recognise and adopt new EU product safety laws to prevent businesses from being burdened with new costs and red tape. The government could “recognise new or updated EU product regulations, including the CE marking where appropriate, to prevent additional costs for businesses and provide regulatory stability” but without having any influence over the regulations themselves.

1892.
Health
Pharma

A Labour councillor in Portsmouth has blamed Brexit for the shortage of ADHD medicine. Cllr Tom Coles said the shortage has resulted in people having to “trawl around pharmacies” searching for available stock. Another Cllr, Matthew Winnington, said: “Whether you think Brexit is a good or bad thing, I think pretty much the consensus is the way that Brexit was handled, and indeed what it did to our medicine supply chain has been an absolute disaster.”

1891.
Citizens
Rights

Research by UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) shows that EU citizens, who are not given a physical ID card but rather need to navigate an online process to use and prove their status, have reported on frequent glitches in that system. But, according to UKICE, even when it is working in a technical sense, the system does not work well for marginalised and vulnerable EU citizens, including many Roma, who often struggle to independently generate a ‘share code’ to prove status to an employer or prospective landlord.

1890.
Citizens
Rights

The Court of Appeal has ruled that two Albanians whose applications to settle in the UK were refused under the EU Settlement Scheme had their rights under the Withdrawal Agreement breached and that their appeals should have been allowed. Their passports had been stamped with the words “Admitted to the United Kingdom under the Immigration (EEA) Regulations 2016” and the Home Office had argued this did not give any right of residence. The Court found that it amounted to facilitation of residence within the meaning of Article 10(2). It’s not known how many other applicants to the EUSS were wrongfully rejected.

1889.
Economy
Taxes

While 52 out of 56 countries worldwide are expected to see a rise in the number of millionaires resident, the UK is forecast to lose 17%, more than any of the other four nations where a fall is forecast. This is according to a recent report by the Swiss bank UBS and reported by the FT. The research also revealed that more millionaires had been leaving the UK than arriving over the past decade, with the UK suffering a net loss of 16,500 millionaires between 2017 and 2023. The UK’s withdrawal from the EU was said to be a factor.

1888.
Economy
Impact

According to the FT, Labour's plans for closer alignment with the EU to boost trade and economic growth is not a simple or immediate fix to the problems caused by Brexit for several reasons, not least because there is no consensus in affected industries about what benefits different models of alignment might achieve.

1887.
Health
NHS

An article in the London Review of Books by an anonymus GP about the shortages of medicines in the UK claims that in order to overcome trade barriers erected because of Brexit, the NHS is now paying extra costs to a private company – the international logistics firm Kuehne and Nagel - to circumvent those barriers. The National Supply Disruption Response was introduced in 2020 to give clinical providers access to an ‘express freight’ mechanism.

1886.
Education
Research

In a recent interview on BBC Radio 4, the government's new chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said: “Brexit was definitely a problem for science. We were part of a very successful European funding scheme with very large collaborations, right the way across Europe.” He added, “You can’t do the type of science that everyone’s trying to do and make progress in isolation. You need brains that come with other backgrounds, other thought processes, other training.”

The ‘considerable’ upsides

April 2024Bootstrap
39.
Education
Taxes

Plans by Labour to scrap the VAT exemption on private school tuition fees announced last year would not have been possible under EU law. If Labour win the next election they intend to charge private schools 20% VAT, as well as ending business rate relief, to raise about £1.7bn.

38.
Economy
Inflation

The government has announced a temporary suspension of import tariffs on around 100 different products not covered by free trade agreements, until 2026. A report by Allianz Trade, a business insurer, suggests the move would cut import costs by £7bn. The list includes some agricultural products but also cars, fuels, metals, and other non-food goods. Allianz says the products represent 45% of total UK imports, it would have the effect of reducing overall inflation by 0.6 percentage points over the next year.

January 2024Bootstrap
37.
Agriculture
Animal welfare

The Animal Welfare (Livestock Exports) Bill, introduced in Parliament in December last year will ban the export of live animals including cattle, sheep, and pigs, legislation only possible after Brexit. The government says law will ensure that animals are slaughtered domestically in high welfare UK slaughterhouses, reinforcing te UK's position as a world leader on animal welfare, boosting the value of British meat and helping to grow the economy.

36.
Food
Wine

From 1 January, as a result of Brexit, UK wine producers will be allowed to sell 'piquette', a French term which sometimes refers to a very simple wine or a wine substitute, described by The Oxford Companion to Wine as a “wine-like beverage.” Piquette cannot be sold in the EU. The term has also been used as a nickname for French wine of low quality. The UK the government has also removed the need for imported wines to have an importer address on the label, reducing administrative burdens for businesses.

December 2023Bootstrap
35.
Economy
Increase

A think tank, The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that the UK economy is set to grow more quickly than France in the coming years, making it almost 20% larger by 2038, and narrowing the gap with Germany. The report also suggests the UK is likely to maintain its position as the sixth-largest global economy.

34.
Economy
Regulation

In May this year, the business secretary, as part of the government's de-regulation drive, announced changes to employment law which she claimed could help save businesses around £1 billion a year. Kemi Badenoch said her department would consult on cutting unnecessary red tape on recording working hours, streamline engagement with workers when a business transfers to new owners, and provide up to 5 million UK workers greater freedom to switch jobs by limiting non-compete clauses.

November 2023Bootstrap
33.
Citizens
Consumer rights

Hailed by The Sun as a major change to Britain's drinking laws, champagne drinkers in the UK may soon be able to buy their favourite fizz in pints. Previously outlawed by EU regulations, government insiders say a consultation with the champagne and English sparkling wine industries is “imminent” and could pave the way for pint-sized servings for all wines “early next year.” A business department source said: “This is just the latest win from our push to ditch pointless and restrictive EU rules.”

October 2023Bootstrap
32.
Food
Trade

DEFRA has announced that following a 2021 market access deal with Japan, UK farmers' processors and suppliers will be able to export fresh and cooked poultry meat into the Japanese market. The industry estimates that this market could be worth over £10 million in the next 5 years. The agreement's implementation had been delayed by an avian influenza outbreak.

31.
Economy
Technology

The co-founder of Facebook, Dustin Moskovitz, now the CEO of software company Asana, has told The Times that Brexit means the UK has the independence to be a global leader in artificial intelligence (AI). Moskovitz said Brussels’ heavy-handed approach to regulation meant it was “better that the UK is out of the EU”. Speaking ahead of Rishi Sunak’s AI summit at Bletchley Park, he said he was “far more concerned about regulatory friction” in the EU than in Britain.

30.
Government
Taxes

Moody's, the international credit rating agency has dropped its negative outlook on the UK, saying that "policy predictability has been restored" following last year's mini-Budget. The influential agency noted the UK's "more conciliatory" approach to EU trade and said increased friction due to Brexit had slowed the UK's bid to reduce inflation, which it sees returning to its 2% target in 2026. The move could mean marginally lower borrowing costs for the government's Debt Management Office (DMO).

29.
Food
Research

Qkine, a Cambridge biotech company that manufactures high-purity, animal-free products for life science applications has identified the cultivated meat sector as an ideal opportunity for post-Brexit Britain to surge ahead. One of the founders, Catherine Hyvönen, told The Cambridge Independent “Leaving the European Union means we now have the capability to take something to market in the UK without having to have the sign-off from every European nation.”

28.
Immigration
Skills

Research by Professor Jonathan Portes into the effects on UK productivity related to changes in immigration levels, reveals that “there is some evidence of a positive association between non-EU origin migrants and productivity, and the reverse for EU-origin migrants.” The analysis suggests that an ‘extra’ 1% of the workforce from outside the EU is associated with an approximately 1.5% increase in productivity, while results for EU-origin migrants are less clear. However, Professor Portes says, “the estimates never approach statistical significance, and are quite small.”

27.
Food
Fishing

The BBC report that Manx fishermen who have started to catch herring around the Isle of Man, for the first time in 25 years. The first boat has started landing the fish following a post-Brexit deal between the UK and the Manx government. Following Brexit, the UK gained a bigger portion of Irish herring quotas, part of which was then shared with the Isle of Man. An initial 100-tonne limit for 2023 is set to be increased in the coming years so more boats can take part.

July 2023Bootstrap
26.
Economy
Trade

The UK has formally signed up to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) but the trade deal, according to the government's static economic modelling, will increase the UK's GDP by just £1.8 billion (0.08%) “in the long run.” Nikkei Asia, says analysts see little economic impact from the deal with the main obvious beneficiary being Malaysia, which stands to gain tariff-free acces to the UK for its palm oil.

May 2023Bootstrap
25.
Food
Wine

Wine. Scrapping retained European Union laws will “put a rocket under” the UK’s domestic wine industry and potentially boost vineyards by £180 million, according to the environment secretary. Therese Coffey said the changes being introduced through the legislation would give vineyards the “freedom they need to thrive”. The changes include using more disease-resistant varieties of grape and eliminating the need for foil caps and mushroom stoppers on certain sparkling wines.

24.
Citizens
Rights

Speeding fines. UK drivers caught on speed cameras in the EU could escape fines after Brexit when the Cross-Border Enforcement (CBE) Directive, which allowed the UK and the EU to share driving license information (it worked both ways) was revoked. However, the DfT say the 1959 Council of Europe Convention on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters (MLA), which permits the exchange of information and evidence on criminal and administrative matters, will continue to apply to the UK, so you may not be off the hook.

November 2022Bootstrap
23.
Economy
Trade

Northern Ireland. A report commissioned by Stormont’s Department for the Economy has suggested that the impact of the NI protocol will see the output of the NI economy rise by 2.2% compared to no Brexit. This is due to the province’s manufacturers maintaining preferential access to both the EU and UK markets and also because the sea border means local producers will face less competition from Great Britain, raising prices for consumers.

August 2022Bootstrap
22.
Economy
Reshoring

Reshoring. Data from BNP Paribas BNP for the first half of 202 2 has revealed a surge in demand for industrial floorspace and increased activity from manufacturing occupiers as they seek to ‘reshore’ activity back to Britain following the impacts of Brexit. Vanessa Hale, Head of Research and Insights at BNP Paribas Real Estate comments: “Reshoring is bringing ‘Made in Britain’ back to our products. There are a number of driving factors behind this including inflation, Brexit, the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the blockage of the Suez canal, which have massively impacted supply chains and overheads.

June 2022Bootstrap
21.
Citizens
Travel

Duty free goods. Before Brexit, travellers coming to the UK from non-EU countries were limited to personal duty free allowances as set by the EU. This was 4 litres of still wine, 16 litres of beer and either 1 litre of spirits over 22 % vol. or 2 litres of fortified or sparkling wine. Now the UK government has increased these allowances for all countries to 18 litres of wine, 42 litres of beer and 4 litres of spirits or liqueurs over 22 percent in alcohol. Duty free allowances for tobacco products remain broadly in line with the old EU higher quantities.

20.
Citizens
Travel

Import VAT. Travellers purchasing goods (not alcohol or tobacco) from duty free zones within the EU (in ports and airports) no longer need to pay country of origin sales taxes and will face no import VAT when arriving in the UK as long as they keep within the £390 limits (£270 if arriving by private plane or boat). This potentially saves buyers up to £78 per trip.

Remember if you know of any specific upsides or downsides, please email editor@yorkshirebylines.co.uk with a link to a confirming story from a reputable source.