In October 2016, David Davis, the then Brexit secretary, told the House of Commons that “there will be no downside to Brexit at all, and considerable upsides”.
With the raising of the minimum salary threshold for a skilled work visa from £26,000 to £38,700, Italian restaurants in London are struggling to find staff post-Brexit, according to The Guardian. The average wage for waiting staff in London in 2024 is £28,000, according to recruitment site Glassdoor. Plaxy Locatelli, who runs Locanda Locatelli in Marylebone said: “It has been an absolute disaster. We’ve been open for 22 years and held on to many of the same staff for a long time. They’re now feeling it’s not worth it in the UK and are deciding to leave after all this time.”
The 77-year old daughter of an Italian now faces various bureaucratic hurdles to obtain an Italian passport to make extended use of a €150,000 two-bedroom Tuscan holiday retreat purchased last year. The retired architect from Edinburgh says her father did not pass on Italian citizenship and she now only has a UK passport. She says obtaining an Italian passport could take up to a decade to resolve.
The Daily Mirror reports that UK holidaymakers are “fuming” about a new rule being introduced by Spain requiring tourists to prove they have at least €113.40 (£97) available every day if they visit the country. It applies to both the mainland, and the Canary and Balearic islands. Spain is concerned about the impact of tourism on its environment and public services. Some Brits have threatened to "boycott" the country.
DUP MP Sammy Wilson has called for Ireland to carry out checks on visitors entering the country to prevent a 'border crisis' with immigrants using the Republic or Northern Ireland to illegally enter the UK. It follows a Home Office admission that it will be "a challenge" to catch people illegally entering the UK from the Republic of Ireland using the Common Travel Area who have not signed up to the new electronic travel authorisation (ETA) scheme.
The Ulster Farmers Union has recently warned that farmers will be unable to absorb the costs of the new EU rules on organic produce. Hence, concerns are now being raised about NI companies becoming uncompetitive when selling into GB. A report in the Belfast Newsletter suggests 14% of the organic eggs sold in Britain for example, come from NI. Baroness Hoey, who campaigned for Brexit but opposes the Windsor Frameworks, has warned that divergence will increase and local farmers will face unfair competition in the UK market.
In a Substack blog post, the chief leader writer at The Times Simon Nixon, argues that Brexit has “wrecked “ the London stock market. He says £100 invested in the FTSE100 in June 2016 is now worth £118 and in the FTSE250, £114. This compares to the same sum invested in the CAC40 (French) at £198; in the Nikkei 225 (Japan) £235: FTSE MIB (Italy) £189 and in the S&P500 index in America it would have grown to £250. London is being de-globalised, he claims, with a net £80 billion being taken out of equities since Brexit.
The former minister for Brexit Opportunities Jacob Rees-Mogg, MP for North East Somerset, has described the extra costs of £2bn to be raised by charging importers for new post-Brexit checks on plant and food products as an “unnecessary act of self-harm that will increase prices in an era of inflation.” Mr Rees-Mogg had claimed in 2017 that Brexit would potentially “reduce people’s food costs by 20%”.
A new report by the business insurer Allianz Trade claims that the new post-Brexit UK border controls coming into force at the end of April will cost British businesses £2bn and help to increase inflation. The new checks, part of the government’s “border target operating model” (Btom), will impact £21bn of food and agricultural product imports adding around 10% to costs in the first year.
A British man and his French wife who moved to France in 2015 after 25 years living and working in the UK cannot now return because they did not have five years of unbroken residency in Britain before Brexit. IT specialist Stephen Kaye, who has Parkinson's disease, said: “My first reaction upon discovering that Carmen did not have an automatic right to return to England was one of disbelief. It did not seem possible that a ‘civilised’ country (the UK) could invent such an outrageous rule.
The Times reports how the new British regulation raising the minimum salary threshold for a skilled work visa from £26,000 to £38,700 is expected to increase the 120,000 current vacancies in the UK's hospitality sector. Recent research indicates that over 90% of the 8,500 migrants recruited in the sector in 2023 would not qualify under the new threshold. The rule is also expected to impact other workers. One Italian who took a master’s degree in marketing in Britain is unable to find a starting salary that would qualify him for a work visa.
The post-Brexit import charges due to begin at the end of April could hinder efforts to get Britons to eat healthier foods. The warning comes from Mike Parr, director at PML Seafrigo, a logistics firm specialising in chilled food distribution. Mr Parr says: “Post-Brexit, there is a growing reluctance to export fresh produce to the UK because it is now fraught with bureaucratic policies and red tape and this latest additional cost is just further ammunition for that argument.”
In what is being described as a major blow to thousands of British expats, Spain has announced plans to end the so-called 'golden visa' scheme which provided residency rights to wealthy foreigners making a significant investment in the Spanish economy as well as visa-free access to the Schengen Zone. It was used to avoid the rule permitting stays of just 90 days in any 180-day period.
Analysis by experts at the immigration and visa law firm A Y & J Solicitors has revealed that the UK government's post-Brexit plan to attract the “brightest and best” to work in the UK accounted for less than 2% of the total work visas issued in 2023. Based on figures from government immigration records, 2,186 High Potential Individual (HPI) visas and 4,181 Global Talent visas were issued last year, out of a total of 337,240. Director Yash Dubal said the data illustrates the gap between the government’s messaging on immigration and the reality of the points-based system.
According to Politico, experts are warning that the new carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) regime threatens to create more problems over the Northern Ireland sea border. The EU's CBAM rules are set to apply from 2026 with the UK expected to introduce its own scheme a year later, leaving Northern Ireland in a half-in half-out status. The issue is likely to raise business costs and threaten jobs in the region and could reopen arguments about laws separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.
The MD of Graham’s Family Dairy, a £150mn business based in Stirling, says the post-Brexit labelling laws requiring dairy and meat products to carry a “Not for EU” label on every pack is costing his company £300,000 even before considering the extra labour time, complexity and additional running costs. According to Dairy UK, the trade body for the dairy sector, the financial cost per business of changing labelling alone has been quoted as up to £500,000, and up to £2 million per business when factoring in all other costs.
The Shropshire Star reports that The Baron of Beef Country Inn and hotel at Bucknell is to close due to the combined impact of Brexit, Covid-19, and the cost-of-living crisis. Owners Debra and Phil Wright said: “Hospitality has had a very challenging few years. Firstly, the effects of Brexit, making staff recruitment much more difficult, then Covid and three lockdowns, and most recently the cost of living crisis. These have had a huge impact on the sector."
Glasgow-based airline Loganair has reported how Brexit red-tape is bringing “unwelcome cost” and exacerbating global aircraft overhaul and maintenance supply chain pressures. The company said: “In the UK’s case, the challenges have been exacerbated by new border import and Civil Aviation Authority certification requirements following Brexit and the UK’s consequent departure from the EASA common European aviation system.”
Zoos are facing difficulties in importing animals from EU countries after Brexit. New legislation is making it complicated and time-consuming. This is also hampering efforts to protect endangered species. Markus Wilder, the curator of Port Lympne Wild Animal Park and Wingham Wildlife Centre in Kent, has claimed stated that getting animals from outside the UK has become difficult. However, within the UK, there are only a limited number of animals that can be moved around.
A new campaign has been set up to demand a universal basic income (UBI) for all farmers in Britain. It follows research by the organic farming group Riverford that found half of the farmers surveyed said they may go out of business due to post-Brexit trade deals and uncertainty over farming payment schemes. BI4Farmers said farmers across the UK were “basically kept afloat” by EU subsidies. Coordinator Jo Poulton said: “British farmers are overworked and underpaid but the Brexit process presents an ideal opportunity to change this.”
The latest trade tracker by the think tank UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) shows UK goods exports have been “consistently declining for the last five years” down by 8.2% since 2019. Paradoxically, UK trade with the EU as a percentage of the total, is at its highest level since 2008. This is because: “Trade with non-EU countries is actually going down, leading to the more stable trade with the EU making up a higher share of UK trade overall.” In Q4 2023, the EU represented 53.6% of UK trade. Seven of the UK’s top 10 trade partners are EU member states.
The Animal Welfare (Livestock Exports) Bill, introduced in Parliament in December last year will ban the export of live animals including cattle, sheep, and pigs, legislation only possible after Brexit. The government says law will ensure that animals are slaughtered domestically in high welfare UK slaughterhouses, reinforcing te UK's position as a world leader on animal welfare, boosting the value of British meat and helping to grow the economy.
From 1 January, as a result of Brexit, UK wine producers will be allowed to sell 'piquette', a French term which sometimes refers to a very simple wine or a wine substitute, described by The Oxford Companion to Wine as a “wine-like beverage.” Piquette cannot be sold in the EU. The term has also been used as a nickname for French wine of low quality. The UK the government has also removed the need for imported wines to have an importer address on the label, reducing administrative burdens for businesses.
A think tank, The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that the UK economy is set to grow more quickly than France in the coming years, making it almost 20% larger by 2038, and narrowing the gap with Germany. The report also suggests the UK is likely to maintain its position as the sixth-largest global economy.
In May this year, the business secretary, as part of the government's de-regulation drive, announced changes to employment law which she claimed could help save businesses around £1 billion a year. Kemi Badenoch said her department would consult on cutting unnecessary red tape on recording working hours, streamline engagement with workers when a business transfers to new owners, and provide up to 5 million UK workers greater freedom to switch jobs by limiting non-compete clauses.
Hailed by The Sun as a major change to Britain's drinking laws, champagne drinkers in the UK may soon be able to buy their favourite fizz in pints. Previously outlawed by EU regulations, government insiders say a consultation with the champagne and English sparkling wine industries is “imminent” and could pave the way for pint-sized servings for all wines “early next year.” A business department source said: “This is just the latest win from our push to ditch pointless and restrictive EU rules.”
DEFRA has announced that following a 2021 market access deal with Japan, UK farmers' processors and suppliers will be able to export fresh and cooked poultry meat into the Japanese market. The industry estimates that this market could be worth over £10 million in the next 5 years. The agreement's implementation had been delayed by an avian influenza outbreak.
The co-founder of Facebook, Dustin Moskovitz, now the CEO of software company Asana, has told The Times that Brexit means the UK has the independence to be a global leader in artificial intelligence (AI). Moskovitz said Brussels’ heavy-handed approach to regulation meant it was “better that the UK is out of the EU”. Speaking ahead of Rishi Sunak’s AI summit at Bletchley Park, he said he was “far more concerned about regulatory friction” in the EU than in Britain.
Moody's, the international credit rating agency has dropped its negative outlook on the UK, saying that "policy predictability has been restored" following last year's mini-Budget. The influential agency noted the UK's "more conciliatory" approach to EU trade and said increased friction due to Brexit had slowed the UK's bid to reduce inflation, which it sees returning to its 2% target in 2026. The move could mean marginally lower borrowing costs for the government's Debt Management Office (DMO).
Qkine, a Cambridge biotech company that manufactures high-purity, animal-free products for life science applications has identified the cultivated meat sector as an ideal opportunity for post-Brexit Britain to surge ahead. One of the founders, Catherine Hyvönen, told The Cambridge Independent “Leaving the European Union means we now have the capability to take something to market in the UK without having to have the sign-off from every European nation.”
Research by Professor Jonathan Portes into the effects on UK productivity related to changes in immigration levels, reveals that “there is some evidence of a positive association between non-EU origin migrants and productivity, and the reverse for EU-origin migrants.” The analysis suggests that an ‘extra’ 1% of the workforce from outside the EU is associated with an approximately 1.5% increase in productivity, while results for EU-origin migrants are less clear. However, Professor Portes says, “the estimates never approach statistical significance, and are quite small.”
The BBC report that Manx fishermen who have started to catch herring around the Isle of Man, for the first time in 25 years. The first boat has started landing the fish following a post-Brexit deal between the UK and the Manx government. Following Brexit, the UK gained a bigger portion of Irish herring quotas, part of which was then shared with the Isle of Man. An initial 100-tonne limit for 2023 is set to be increased in the coming years so more boats can take part.
The UK has formally signed up to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) but the trade deal, according to the government's static economic modelling, will increase the UK's GDP by just £1.8 billion (0.08%) “in the long run.” Nikkei Asia, says analysts see little economic impact from the deal with the main obvious beneficiary being Malaysia, which stands to gain tariff-free acces to the UK for its palm oil.
Wine. Scrapping retained European Union laws will “put a rocket under” the UK’s domestic wine industry and potentially boost vineyards by £180 million, according to the environment secretary. Therese Coffey said the changes being introduced through the legislation would give vineyards the “freedom they need to thrive”. The changes include using more disease-resistant varieties of grape and eliminating the need for foil caps and mushroom stoppers on certain sparkling wines.
Speeding fines. UK drivers caught on speed cameras in the EU could escape fines after Brexit when the Cross-Border Enforcement (CBE) Directive, which allowed the UK and the EU to share driving license information (it worked both ways) was revoked. However, the DfT say the 1959 Council of Europe Convention on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters (MLA), which permits the exchange of information and evidence on criminal and administrative matters, will continue to apply to the UK, so you may not be off the hook.
Northern Ireland. A report commissioned by Stormont’s Department for the Economy has suggested that the impact of the NI protocol will see the output of the NI economy rise by 2.2% compared to no Brexit. This is due to the province’s manufacturers maintaining preferential access to both the EU and UK markets and also because the sea border means local producers will face less competition from Great Britain, raising prices for consumers.
Reshoring. Data from BNP Paribas BNP for the first half of 202 2 has revealed a surge in demand for industrial floorspace and increased activity from manufacturing occupiers as they seek to ‘reshore’ activity back to Britain following the impacts of Brexit. Vanessa Hale, Head of Research and Insights at BNP Paribas Real Estate comments: “Reshoring is bringing ‘Made in Britain’ back to our products. There are a number of driving factors behind this including inflation, Brexit, the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the blockage of the Suez canal, which have massively impacted supply chains and overheads.
Duty free goods. Before Brexit, travellers coming to the UK from non-EU countries were limited to personal duty free allowances as set by the EU. This was 4 litres of still wine, 16 litres of beer and either 1 litre of spirits over 22 % vol. or 2 litres of fortified or sparkling wine. Now the UK government has increased these allowances for all countries to 18 litres of wine, 42 litres of beer and 4 litres of spirits or liqueurs over 22 percent in alcohol. Duty free allowances for tobacco products remain broadly in line with the old EU higher quantities.
Import VAT. Travellers purchasing goods (not alcohol or tobacco) from duty free zones within the EU (in ports and airports) no longer need to pay country of origin sales taxes and will face no import VAT when arriving in the UK as long as they keep within the £390 limits (£270 if arriving by private plane or boat). This potentially saves buyers up to £78 per trip.
Asylum claims. According to the BBC’s lewis Goodall, successful asylum decisions are at their highest rate for many years attributed partly to Brexit. The UK is no longer part of The Dublin Agreement meaning we can no longer refuse a refugee’s application on basis they’ve already crossed into an EU country. Dr Peter Walsh, Senior Researcher at the Migration Observatory at Oxford: “The government has recognised three quarters of asylum applications as valid over the last year. This is a significant shift compared to a few years ago, when the majority of asylum applications were initially refused (even if many of these were later overturned on appeal). We now see majorities of positive decisions across a range of groups, from young men to older women….”
Cheaper fish: The House of Lords European Affairs Committee says a deal with Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein signed in July, will mean cheaper fish in shops and supermarkets. Tariffs on the import into the UK of shrimps and prawns are removed, delivering savings of between £1m and £2.7m annually and Norway has agreed to cut certain tariffs for imports of UK fish feed from 10.5% to zero, thereby achieving annual savings of some £4.1m.
Yorkshire Bylines https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/the-davis-downside-dossier/